Cash flow risk. tfs doesn't generate a lot cash flow from...

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lukelee

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08/04/16

13:13

Post #: 17456091
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Originally posted by SA1588 ↑

I am considering going seriously over weight TFC. I understand the positives for TFC, but would very much appreciate guidance on the negatives.
I am aware of the following negatives:

Exchange rate risk

Fire risk (I understand there is no insurance cover)

Cyclonic risk (I understand the plantations are in low cyclone are for building purposes)

Agricultural risk. I believe this is minimal as TFC has more than 15 years’ experience and its track record of tree survival demonstrates good husbandry.

Oil yield risk. I believe TFC can accurately predict the oil yield from the Gvt research project and its own experience.

Market price risk. TFC has presold its next 2 years of harvest at the higher $USD4,500 per kg. Newspaper reports state it has presold its next 5 years of harvest at this $4,500kg.

Competitors flooding the market with cheaper sandalwood oil. This seems very unlikely in the next several years because of the time taken to grow the trees. Also considering TFC’s projected harvest volumes are less than 1% of the market. Refer the graph on page 13 of http://www.tfsltd.com.au/files/5514/5663/7499/SIO_2016_Information_Memorandum.pdf

Australian sandalwood replacing Indian sandalwood (TFC grows Indian sandalwood). I am unable to evaluate this risk. I am aware that Australian sandalwood oil is around 25% of the aromatic properties of Indian Sandalwood and trades around a tenth of the price. I also understand there have been some substantial plantings by farmers in the Western Australian wheat belt. Something like a half of the volume of TFC’s plantations. But I do not have reliable information on this risk.

I am concerned I am being too overly positive on this stock (refer all my other posts). So I would greatly appreciate any other negatives I have not considered and people’s comments on the above. Thanks in advance.

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Cash flow risk. tfs doesn't generate a lot cash flow from sandalwood products.
Valuation risk. Sandalwood price drop will drag down company market cap.
Currency risk. AUD is currently low, it may rise in future.
TFC Price at posting: $1.60 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Cash flow risk. tfs doesn't generate a lot cash flow from...

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