what a dog, page-11

First 11 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
gofish100

1,742 Posts.

2

20/06/16

16:03

Post #: 18075610
Share

Originally posted by joewolf ↑

I dont agree - according to my models the Gross margin was around $3.98 to $4.11 per Mwh in Oz- they are saying its going to be around $3.00 in 2017. So we can expect a 25% decrease in the supply business and the generating unit has already reduced its profits as it came off contract.

Mt estimation of that is that it drops our EBITDAIF by around $20 million for 2017. Its not a profit downgrade for 2016 but a large one for 2017. We already have banked the drop this year - they had promised a return to growth next year - they have wiped that out with them appearing to be just holding volume with new business making up for lost renewals.

The USA business cannot be the savior until it gets its sales up to the same as Oz. So the %Twh is just too small but is promising - around 25% of Oz - the forward sales contracts grew by almost 4 times what they had the year before but that is the same experience they had here in the early days. They are now also flagging the ceiling to sales in Oz - so after telling all of us that there was a great opportunity in SME business its not even mentioned - I suspect that its plateaued and that growth will only come organically until the market realizes they are a good supplier - or they will have to spend a lot of money on marketing. Not sure they will go there.

My model suggests that underlying EPS in 2017 will be between 10.9c and 13c - I am not surprised its fallen this far yes its probably an overshoot but at the same time they have only a few more times they can shock the market to the downside.

I should have sold ages ago... - I think its worth between $1.25 and $1.55 so really its not been good at all.

Expand

So it not an overreaction like i thought , everything to do with EBIT 2017 , thanks for a great summary.

Last edited by gofish100: 20/06/16

EPW Price at posting: $1.11 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

REM

Equinox sniffs shallow and high-grade titanium ahead of MRE for Brazilian play

History-making uranium sample grades and an imminent drill run. Infini Resources is poised to transform in 2025

WC8

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

ACW

This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game

MIN

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

There are more pages in this discussion • 15 more messages in this thread...

First 11 Last

Add EPW (ASX) to my watchlist

what a dog, page-11

Top Stories

Equinox sniffs shallow and high-grade titanium ahead of MRE for Brazilian play

History-making uranium sample grades and an imminent drill run. Infini Resources is poised to transform in 2025

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

Featured News