OEX 20.0% 0.6¢ oilex ltd

Fair point black hat. We are certainly at the most crucial stage...

  1. 893 Posts.
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    Fair point black hat. We are certainly at the most crucial stage yet prior to flow testing.
    And no, Oilex has never produced or sold any gas or condensates in its rather long
    history. This operation for mine offers the best chance of doing that. We know that the
    basin produces gas, 73H produced 166 boepd from a vertical well. Not sure about decline
    rates or EUR. The doubt lies in the execution of 77H in the execution of the technology and
    ultimately whether the Cambay basin can be of a quality equal to the Great Eagle Ford Basin
    in the US or whether it proves to be a non commercial concern.

    Bazzle, I think the SP at this stage of the game is a FAIR price {MC of $50 million}. It is only 1.5c
    off its highs, from a low of 4c. To be at 12p or 22c would give a MC of close to 100m. MC of 100m
    with a few million in the bank, a $7m share in this drill and a lease in the Canning basin. I think at
    this stage of the game 12-13c is fair. I would hope on successful clean up the SP might go to
    14-15c. It may well go to 18c just prior to a flow test, but even at this price I would consider it
    an irrational price based on pure speculation of possible commercial success. Still a fair punt
    though, anything around the 4-6mmscfd flow rate would see the SP up around the 30-40c mark
    for mine, giving it, I would think, a still conservative MC of 150 million.

    Quite possible that Magna are trying to keep a cap on the SP and why wouldn't they? In my
    mind, any commercial success will see a bid for Oilex from Magna. They took shares in lieu
    of cash and they continued to buy at higher prices to get to within 20%. They didn't do that
    to clap from the sidelines imo. However, there is still uncertainty until clean up operations
    can be completed successfully and until that is resolved the SP remains where it is.

    Currently up about 1-2% on the AIM, so price holding well indicating that no major problems
    have been encountered as yet in clean up ops.

    Fingers crossed. GLTAH
 
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