FWIW, G, I'm very bullish on QUB but you probably picked that up from prior posts. However, I find myself at the self imposed limit/max on my exposure to one company (roughly 10% of portfolio) so I won't be going higher for a while. That statement should tell you something though.
There are many top projects underway which should generate excellent cash flow. QUB is offering $300 mil in subordinated notes to the S/H and instos which will no doubt fund Moorebank, at least in part. I'm led to believe that the proposed issue is being well received. This debt (while a floating rate) should be relatively inexpensive over its 7 year (I believe) lifetime. These projects are medium to LT based but I accept the Board and Mgt's view that they are transformational in nature. This should become much clearer when the AIO and Patrick's operations are bedded down and we can see their impact on cash flows.
To address your question directly, buying in at roughly the low $2.30's (current levels) should prove a successful gambit IMO however only a fool would say that it couldn't go lower in an uncertain world climate. The organization has a vision and sound strategic thinking at all levels, again IMO, which should hold it in good stead against competition. But, DYOR.
Risks include any dilutive impact of future capital raisings. I think Druiner (spelling?) expressed this thought before me (and before the note raising announcement) but it is a consideration for any intending investor. Government involvement eg ACCC consultations and decisions can pose obstacles at times but this is usually for a legitimate set of national reasons. Also, there are always the unkowns which the public never knows until the news breaks. I have no insights and am not trying to start rumours but, costs aside (there's a joke there somewhere), how would you feel if QUB purchased the Port Melbourne lease for 50 years @ $6 billion. Would it blend relatively effortlessly with the Moorebank Project and would it need external funding (financial risks/partners)---my oath, but still an intriguing thought!!!
Anyway, GL and to GLTAH. Cheers.
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