TNK 0.32% $3.09 think childcare group

weakness, page-7

  1. 599 Posts.
    Hypothetical good case scenario for TNK:

    1. Meets prospectus NPAT of 4.4m (11c EPS) for 2015 CY.
    2. Uses 20m debt facility to acquire about 3.1m NPAT.
    3. Profits from original centres and acquisitions, at least maintain through any policy changes, and the centres combine for full year of 7.5m NPAT or 18c EPS, let's say in 2016 CY.
    4. If SP rerates (even from 10 to 11 PE!), SP will then be around $2, so a double of investment within 2 years.

    There are a lot of qualatative things that need to go right for that to happen, which is why it's a 100% reward for risk. The above would be my reason to buy, but analysing whether that will happen will take more time.
 
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