Admittedly I was a little sceptical on earnings for CLV towards the latter half of '08. Mainly because of the recent market trends, bad news out of asia and little communication as to earnings guidance. However these risks have largely dissipated.
I challenge anyone to show me a listed stock that is more or equally as undervalued as CLV. There are many companies trading with a lower PE or perhaps higher dividend but on balance, there isnt another company with the risk profile of CLV. Eg: VMG, huge discount to EPS, DivYield, but its exposed to the contruction sector. I am prepared to discuss this with anyone who has a rebuttal for my statements, I am seriously interested to hear if there exists a company in the same (relative) situation as CLV.
I dont have to reiterate to those who are long-term investors but at the same time this is what you are faced with:
- CLV is going to make at least 3 Mill this FY as a conservative estimate. Personally I think they are going to make NPAT 3.8 Mill.
- Based on this, EPS will be around $0.023 (equivalent PE of around 8x)
- AUD is down against all major currencies boding extremely well for its export markets, particularly US and Asia, however Asia is its primary concern. This makes up part of my earnings assumptions
- I believe CLV will most likely issue a dividend, based on these earnings of between $0.075 and $0.01 this half year which equates to a full year divYield of between 8-10% based on current share price of $0.185.
- its NTA will be around $0.15 this FY.
- no debt
- excellent management and strong major shareholders
- strong and reliable earnings from current markets despite economic slowdown. People will ALWAYS need infant formula and/or fortified food products with targeted nutrients like OMEGA-3 DHA. These products have become the norm now and recommended by health org. around the world.
- there are absolutely zero negatives or blockers I can see for CLV to continue making money. You may agrue that growth will slow (I doubt it), but it has a reliable income stream based on it product/market.
In view of the above, I cannot understand how CLV can be anywhere near $0.18 - I welcome any criticisms of what I have said. There isnt a single line I cant justify.
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