Oops, I think I might have got the years one too early. Confused myself with the lag of harvesting to cash realisation over the end of a financial year:
Because the MIS downturn back in 2004 caused a sharp decline in new plantations, so if mgt stick to the strict 15 year harvest schedule then the 2019 harvest (that will be sold in FY20) will see a considerable fall. Whilst the 2020 harvest should be higher than 2019 it will still be lower than 2018, which will see TFC's EPS in FY19 only exceeded in FY22.
Unfortunately none of the current broker research notes on the TFC website are long-form which shows this quite well. But go to the ASX website and look up the presentation from 4 April, slide 6. The chart clearly shows the scheduled 2019 harvest is 142ha vs 259ha in 2018 (and 168ha in 2020).
But then again the 2021 harvest is 487ha, and mgt initiated the capital raising to allow TFS to smooth the harvest profile, so theoretically mgt can buyback 2021 (and beyond) plantations and harvest early, thereby filling in the 2019 and 2020 'holes'.
So there might be lots of trading opportunities in TFC over the coming years; my overriding strategy is to make sure I am properly positioned before the market starts to factor in the uplift in harvests that starts in half a decade's time.
TFC Price at posting:
$1.65 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
