i share your hopes perspicacity and with some luck we will have...

i share your hopes perspicacity and with some luck we will have a good 2013 and beyond.

but there are many challenges. in the immediate future we need to pass the fda checkpoint which is not a formality. statistically we have about a 50% chance of getting a pass. logically its probably better (based on your safety profile). but we dont have access to all the trial data so we act on good faith.

commercialisation also is not as simple as some of the slides make out in my opinion. indeed i find them pretty misleading. in one they indicate moxduo only needs to capture 5% of the IR market to get circa 600m in revenue. in reality the IR market in the US (the only market we close to entering) 2.5b and 5% of that is only 125m. for us to get 600m of the 2.5b US acute pain (IR) market we need to grab more like 25% of the market. possible?? its a big ask. i set my targets for half and if they get more ill be unexpectedly surprised.

then there is the speed with which the company thinks they can make it to peak sales... 2.5 years. thats faster than other comparable products from what i can see. again, very bullish.

there is a mountain of competition ahead of us. i count 5 other companies developing advanced hydrocodone (only) treatments, eg, Zogenix has a pdufa date of March 1 for their ER product. by all accounts its pretty good. there are others (cephalon, purdue pharma, egalet, kempharm, ... ).