wag time, page-32

I agree KEY is unloved ATM and s/p is an absolute steal @ current MC of $13mil.

I believe a reason for this is the company doesn't update the market like some other junior's .I would imagine 99% of other junior's with a MC sub $20mil would be making announcements espeacialy on the back of their JV operator AMINEX .Here are some examples of info AMINEX has released in the last six months;

1-Nyuni and Kiliwani North: New seismic acquired in summer 2009 to define the Kiliwani North discovery is being integrated into reprocessed data covering the remainder of the Nyuni licence and the preliminary results of the broader exercise are extremely encouraging for the unexplored prospects on this licence. Aminex increased its interest in Nyuni from 40% to 50% in summer 2009 and the Nyuni Joint Venture has now voted to drill an exploration well in about one year's time.

2- Aminex is not yet in a position to quantify the Kiliwani North discovery but should be able to do so in the first quarter of 2010. Kiliwani North-1 flowed gas at 40 million cubic feet per day (equivalent to approximately 6,000 barrels of oil per day using the industry standard conversion factor) in 2008 under full production test conditions. Gas commercialisation terms have now been agreed in principle with the Tanzanian authorities and are likely to be finalised early in 2010 while approval for plant upgrading to handle Kiliwani North gas is still awaited. Kiliwani North is still held under an appraisal licence and when appraisal is complete a development licence will be applied for.

3-Exhibit 6 - Valuation summary
Asset Net 2P Unrisked Risk Risked Risked
mmboe $m % $m p/sh
Alta Loma 39.9 100% 39.9 6
Shoats Creek 95.4 80% 76.3 12
W Weslaco 7.6 100% 7.6 1
Somerset -1.0 100% -1.0 0

Nyuni 540.0 10% 54.0 8
Ruvuma 441.0 10% 44.1 7

Source: Aminex, OPC, Isis, Omni Investment Research

If we look at these 3 examples ;

1- The fact that Aminex increased their stake by 25% to 50% and the extremely encouraging seismic , great the JV operator's like what they see.

2- Gas commercialisation terms agreed in principle.I was surprised that Key didn't release that to the market.

3- This is part of a report by Omni Investment research on Aminex ,the table above has a risked value for Aminex's 50% share of Nyuni @ $54milUSD if you convert to AUD at KEY 20% you get $24mil.

Then we also have WSS ,Italy and a UK business that potentially can achieve revenue exceeding current MC.


I have liked this company for quite a while and have taken a long term approach. Wack'em in the bottom draw and hope that one day the draw is worth more than the house.

Ps the unrisked value of Nyuni is $240mil AUD