WAF valuation, page-184

Hi @2ic

Thanks for your opinion.

I don't know if you read my post that discussed the tribal divisions in the country (and the dominant Mossi tribe) which are the strongest driving forces IMO in these West African states. If you missed it you can read it here.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...4523717/page-19?post_id=36438173#.XEPTsxo_WhA

This is not a tribal based issue, which is generally where you can foster the most violence and instability in this part of the world. The natural culture of the people of Burkina Faso will work to resist the doctrines of the Jihadists, particularly the doctrines that lead to acts of terror.

The situation has definately worsened from a Western investment perspective. I was following quite a few companies operating in Burkina Faso in the earlier mid-part of this decade when I had shares in Orbis and Orbis were working on the Natougou and Nabanga ore depoists in the east and southeast of the country. Orbis managed to explore and develop Natougou without any incident that I recall and the company was eventually TO by SEMFCO who just finished commissioning the project (now called Bounhou) in September of last year.

You can see where Boungou and Nabanga are located on a map by searching the SEMFCO's website.

https://www.semafo.com/English/operations-and-exploration/Boungou-Development-/default.aspx

There is no doubt that the indcident that occurred in August last year which killed six people was a direct attack on a armed convoy delivering materials to Boungou. See my post below.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/an...4523717/page-29?post_id=36451843#.XEPaMxo_WhA

Personally I think Sanbrado is in a much securer location, being more central in Mossi tribal territory and only being able to be accessed (in and out from the east) by a major highway, but there is no such thing as an absolutely secure location in this country as some of these attacks have occurred in the capital, Ouagadougou, which is in the centre of the country. Sanbrado's location is probably more secure than the capital, which is much harder to patrol due to the numerous means of entry. Entry by road to the Sandbrado site from the east can be patrolled and escape would be practically impossible due to the distance back to the safer and totally unlawful territories to the east. This probably mitigates against an attack at this site but wouldn't rule it out completely, depending on how brazen the terrorists get and what coordinated goals they might be working against.

The attack on the mine site routes, such as the August attack on the road to Boungou, and the attacks on foreign nationals working in the country understandably has investors, particularly Canadian investors, worried as the dynamic has notably changed in the last 5 years. Also as a worker at some of these sites, like Boungou, you would be far more worried about your safety and your ingress and exit trip to the mine, if by road, would come with a little bit more of an adrenaline rush than it would have a few years ago.

As I said in my post on the Mossi below

"I don’t see that a few extremists are going to destroy a proud society that has been around for almost 700 years, their goals will never become aligned IMO as the Mossi will care more for their own traditions than an extreme and narrow interpretation of the Sunni religion (interpreted by a small extremist minority) that adheres to Sufism, a form of Islamic mysticism. I doubt that the average Mossi understands the first thing about Sufism and would probably want to see the Islamic extremists eradicated if they are causing trouble and creating violence in their communities. Esh"

This is probably little solace to the families of people that have died at the extremist's hands or for skittish western investors but I don't see the problem as having potential to cause the country to descend into chaos or for the extremists to be able to dismantle the gold mining industry which has taken more than a decade to grow to its current height. Esh