Hi Franpower, That's more like it, I appreciate that you put in...

Hi Franpower,

That's more like it, I appreciate that you put in some time to expand on your thoughts and participate seriously. Allow me to also set a few things straight. Your original post clearly implicated my posting efforts and opinion as tied up with some effort to downramp SFX and cause HC readers to sell out, that my efforts may have been part of some Taurus plan too lucky to be coincidental, and at the very least my post helped deliver a lower VWAP for the Taurus share issue. Peppie spelt it out to be certain and you replied with barely disguised fake surprise before doubling down on the implication " do you think it is possible?". Please don't treat me or readers on HC as fools, the implication of your posts was clear and to pretend otherwise is disingenuous at best. Not just was your implication offensive and worthless, facts of that weeks trading completely invalidates my role in the share price action of the week. 70k shares were traded on Monday 4th after my weekend post and price down 1c, but 1,173K shares were traded Tuesday with price raising 4c to 59c. It doesn't even make sense.

There are plenty of ways to criticise my analysis and provide support for the buy case without shooting the messenger. I have learned to embrace the argy bargy between poster's, holders are usually passionate about their position and back that position with conviction. Nobody appreciates negative views, especially when it adds to the cognitive dissonance and uncertainty caused by a falling share price. What does get me miffed is the all too common attempts to denigrate genuine efforts at analysis by claiming a poster is pushing someone else's agenda, be it buyers trying to get in cheaper, management's, or the poster's own self-serving manipulation. Recent readers know full well why I posted my views on the share price action and analysis of SFX's situation. They also know that it came near then end of an otherwise inexplicable and unrelenting one month share price sell down completely against the trend of a strongly rising market. Holders were rightly wanted to know how this could possibly be so if the story was as bullish as painted by management and analysts? I wish there were more people put in the time to make detailed analysis and show their workings, I'm here firstly to learn and make money after all. I post for the satisfaction of doing the research and to challenge others to think deeper on the risks and opportunities in the market. I expect to cop flak posting negative views to optimistic holders, but I don't appreciate my efforts being denigrated with cheap shots from the cheap seats by those not even prepared to put in a decent effort themselves.

Let's agree to put that behind us. HC is a much better site than 10 years ago, the moderators do a great job of keeping threads on track and respectful, lots of good information to be gleaned by investors prepared to look deeper, entertaining for those of us with a curiosity for financial markets and love of punting speculative stocks. If you read all my recent posts SFX you'll know that I am not at all negative the stock. I agree it has strategic value, that TB has a strong investment case and will get funded for development. that TB is a great fit for Iluka who may yet make a takeover play, that of the half dozen different ways this funding may work out the only price downside is a large placement market equity raise option. I have stated that for new investors SFX is a buy, just perhaps too risky for averaging down at current prices and thus a hold, and I honestly doubt many on HC sold their shares in the 50's because of my analysis. The recent share price rot started end of Jan at 67c well before I posted and continued well after I posted. The question was raised to the forum and remains; "why is the share price falling if SFX is such clear buying value?".

This brings us back full circle to my explanation; that increasing the capex decreases a DFS valuation on any metric one considers, which in turn reduces the project's attractiveness to potential buyers who have to fund both the buy-in purchase plus their share of development costs. That the falling share price action indicates that no good sell-down offers were on the table given a strong historic correlation for news, good or bad, to leak from insiders into the market. Finally, that the very large equity raise hurdle for SFX circa $250M would likely be sub 60c if attractive alternative project funding could not be organised and the equity was raised via a discounted market placement as is traditional. I was never suggesting holders sell into the 50's, but that if alternative funding cannot be arranged with a structured project sell-down after so much fan fair by management that such a large CR would be made a prices lower than last years $16M top up at 65c. I don't think my analysis is overly negative although I am disappointed with what has transpired this last 4-5 months. Between the substantial capex increases and the need for a much larger $141M in working capital and owners costs than the market was expecting (company affiliated analysts included) i'ts no surprise really the share price tanked into the 65c CR raise. The concern for holders now is why the share price sunk further over the structured project sell-down during a strong market rally?

What I and all holders would love to know moving forward, is SFX a screaming buy? I've outlined why 'perhaps' the share price is where it is, but it could simply be one or two large holders wanted out, pushing share price down in doing so. Could be that a great project buy-in offers have been tabled yet nothing has leaked but management still cannot generate enough buying support to soak up the sellers. Unfortunately those outside the tent have to rely on logical analysis and deduction, if not outright reading the technical tea leaves, to form and opinion and make investment decisions. We both agree that outcomes "range from moderate loss or break even, to highly profitable where you could very feasibly double your money, possibly even triple it." I could even be persuaded that SFX represents a "very favourable risk/reward profile". The entire risk/reward profile obviously revolves around the probability of another, larger, discounted CR to fund development. Regardless of the ultimate share valuation and price in 6 months time, very few want to buy in at 65c just before many others buy in sub 60c with a CR. I won't insult your intelligence with a long list of recent examples for what I speak of.

So, it also seems we agree that the largest reason the share price is wallowing is "because some investors still have it in mind that a large capital raising to fund +$200mil at sub $0.60 is still an option". Your interesting opinion in all the above is that "practically I'd say it's as good as off the table" regards a sub-60c CR, and further, "why would I say that its off the table? I'll tell you shortly but for now I have to run". Great little teaser that, certainly got my attention because if a discounted CR is off the table then I for one will being topping back up for sure. Waiting with baited breath for some substance to your welcome efforts at adding to the debate and case for SFX as an investment pre equity funding.

Cheers