Hi 2ic, Let's set a couple of things straight before we get into...

Hi 2ic,

Let's set a couple of things straight before we get into the useful stuff, and I agree that the useful stuff is what's important, so I'm happy to leave the other stuff at paragraph one. Firstly, why did I post what I did and what did I hope to achieve? well here it is - as a result of having read your post on March 3rd (which happened to be a very close friend's birthday, coupled with the fact it was a post which I felt unrealistically assessed the value of the asset at a time when many investors were nervous and tired and at a crucial time for the company and shareholders) I was particularly primed to notice (when reading the cleansing notice) that the vwap period happened to start the day after your post was made, and when I did notice this, I had a little chuckle to myself about the fortunate timing - why? quite simply because I found it ironically amusing that that's how life works, and so I made my post. I really don't think that you have anything to do with the financiers. Having said that, I was also hoping the post would get people thinking a little bit more about why the share price is doing what it's doing, and from there I'd be very happy to start a fruitful conversation about value, a conversation which I'll hopefully contribute meaningful to.

So your reply to my post is a good basis for us to start that conversation. I apologise if my posts hit a nerve or seemed pointless, not my intention.

The main topic to assess is why is the share price where it is, and does it represent the value (including strategic value) of the asset in its current form.

Let's also say that I'm not intending this comment or my previous comment on your post of March 3rd as a personal criticism, you've obviously put a lot of work into what you've posted, however I do find that my perspective differs from yours and I'm critical of your overall assessment. I note that you have added many disclaimers, which in your mind may imply a neutral sentiment where you are just providing an objective assessment of the array of possible outcomes, however to me the overall sentiment of your piece suggests that a positive outcome for buyers at $0.60 is such that at best you'd call it a HOLD.

That's what I have an issue with. I would suggest that many people after reading your post would have felt like "throwing the baby out with the bath water" at a price of between 55-62c, whereas what would be more appropriate, I feel, is the opposite action. It also came at a time when those who had been suffering a falling price over a period of nearly 4.5 months just couldn't bear it anymore, and capitulated.

What's really interesting to me are the unique set of factors which have helped the price get to where it is, a set of factors which are feeding into each other.

Back to the worthiness of buying now, in my view almost all of the likely ways of dicing it show a six month outcome (given an investment decision to buy at $0.60) which range from moderate loss or break even, to highly profitable where you could very feasibly double your money, possibly even triple it. To me it's the sort of investment worth making thanks to a very favourable risk/reward profile.

I used to be an investment adviser and portfolio manager and this is the sort of investment opportunity that you only come across once in five or ten years just because you happen to be in the right place at the right time and can read the signs different to those who are in a different place, it almost entices me back into the game, it's not often that opportunities like this come along.

So, why is the share price where it is? The largest reason in my mind is because some investors still have it in mind that a large capital raising to fund +$200mil at sub $0.60 is still an option - well technically it is an option, but practically I'd say it's as good as off the table. If you look at things from that perspective then does $0.60 still look like a hold, or does it start to scream Buy?

And why would I say that its off the table? I'll tell you shortly but for now I have to run, I just wanted to reply in part rather than leaving the thread hanging.

Out for now.