Interesting to see how my hypothesis from May last year has...

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Stweeve

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02/04/16

18:40

Post #: 17408190
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Originally posted by Stweeve ↑

Cheers Patient!

In my opinion the price got way way ahead of itself when the business still years away from making a profit in 2013, and deserved to get knocked down to 50c for the cap raising. Right now it's probably sitting a bit under fair value while there is still no guarantee of a wagering partnership in the UK or salary packaging here in oz. If neither of these deals were executed in 2015 I would probably consider selling, but based on their current track records I don't believe this will be the case.

This is classic Peter Lynch stuff: "Enter early -- but not too early." As Lynch says "I often think of investing in growth companies in terms of baseball. Try to join the game in the third inning, because a company has proved itself by then. If you buy before the lineup is announced, you're taking an unnecessary risk. There's plenty of time (10 to 15 years in some cases) between the third and the seventh innings, which is where the 10- to 50-baggers are made. If you buy in the late innings, you may be too late."

IMO we are in the second inning right now. The business is executing well on the verticals it has targeted in Aus (gambling and payday lending) but we are still waiting on SFUK to get us across the line for third inning. As long as they continue to establish new verticals (or expand existing) here and overseas there is zero reason to worry about what the market thinks the price is worth.

On the flip side, I'm still a number of units short of where I would like my total holding size to be, so periods of weakness are great for topping that up.

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Interesting to see how my hypothesis from May last year has played out. We are now at the start of the third inning. The Bet365 deal has dramatically de-risked this business. We now have a profitable, well run, global company with a proven product, that is now starting to operate at scale.

EML Price at posting: $1.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $1.01		Change 0.025(2.54%)		Mkt cap ! $252.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
98.5¢	$1.03	98.5¢	$4.678M	4.654M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	500	$1.01

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.02	4414	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	20101	0.705
5	116332	0.700
2	32784	0.695
4	32862	0.690
4	160449	0.685

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.715	18450	2
0.720	71784	3
0.725	21530	3
0.730	19444	4
0.735	304	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 29/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

EML (ASX) Chart

Interesting to see how my hypothesis from May last year has...

Top Stories

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Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)