You can google Symbio & Skype and find the links in press releases. As Symbio is a private company it does not have to release its revenue figures so you will not likely find how big a customer Skype is for them. If I had to guess I would say bigger than MNF.
Whilst you are making some educated presumptions about who owns what IP in relation to features of the MNF network, the facts of the matter are you and I do not know. I had the impression that MNF owned all of it's features.
The point I was making in my last post was pretty simple, if and when there is a takeover offer for MNF Symbio would likely not be required. They of course provide the backend and may even own some of the IP, the new buyer may even continue to use that backend or simply make the sale conditional on a smooth handover including IP sharing or transfer. I do not see the problem here. The value of MNF is it's customer base & revenue.
As for waiting for $2 per share, if it ever got there I would have been out long before that, my confidence and financial needs would not stretch as far as that!
Personally, I reckon that MNF would be an ideal for a larger US or Euro VOIP company wanting to lay down roots in Australia. I think it only a matter of time before we hear rumblings of this as global markets begin their financial recoveries in 6-12 months time (recovery estimate is a hopeful guesstimate).
I note that in the recent Seven 1/2 yearly that they have posted in their Asset Statement their ENG 58% holding as having a value of $8.4M and left their Unwired investment at $122M. Not sure how to properly analyse this in respect of how they would view spending around the required $15M right now to buy MNF? The comparitive value metrics do not seem to support Seven spending $15M on MNF at this point in time?
In theory based solely on revenue and margin, ENG should be worth about 2X the value of MNF on the proviso that ENG get costs below profit as MNF have done. ENG say they will in 6 mths time so we can assume that this comparision could at sometime be an effective measure of the two companies.
The $8.4M Seven value ENG at equates to about 2.3c per ENG share. Based on the current ENG SP of 1.5c, the Seven stake looks to be worth about $5.5M and the entire ENG company at $9.5M.
Comparitively MNF with it's 52M shares and SP around 8c at present is worth about $4.1M. As we know recently current SP is not real indicator of a companys worth in this market but it is useful to run the comparisions.
If MNF continue their explosive growth and ENG maintain zero or modest growth as they have been doing, then in thory both ENG & MNF will be worth the same value by EOY FY10 (16 months from now).
At the moment, things are going pretty well for MNF shareholders and I beleieve MNF is still firmly in growth territory. I can not propoerly judge or estimate ENG likely growth and profitability beyond recent ENG announcements but consider that ENG does have some 8 years of history showing massive losses.
I do beleive that a Naked DSL offering will be implemented, I just do not know when. I agree that MNF does need this offering and needs it soon but I do not believe they will shrink or go backwards without it.
I accept that this post contains a ton of speculation and that is all it is, I know no more than any other MNF holder and my own presumtions vary between logical and hopeful.
MNF Price at posting:
8.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held