Vanadium is the perfect investment at the moment because of the...

Vanadium is the perfect investment at the moment because of the two way shock absorbers on price IMO. If it gets too high, yes production can ramp out of China and Russia with estimated break even prices of $15 plus the investment decision IRR. The concentrate grade crowd could even find their billions with sustained high prices. Of course this would be after all cheaper alternatives have been sourced (the beauty of efficient market capital allocation).

But. And I've thought about this a fair bit in the last few months... prices also have an enormous price support mechanism. Energy storage. To date it's had no impact on demand. Prices are 100% due to rebar and constrained supply. Rongke postponing it's Dalian facility due to Vanadium supply difficulties is a clear sign that VRFB technology, as great as it is, can't compete well with the many storage alternatives at $20.

It's now widely accepted as the best grid storage solution where hydro isn't possible but the world is driven by economics. It doesn't work at $20 but it's close and the market is huge. Current estimates are >40GW p.a. being added to storage throughout the early 20's. As renewable energy ramps into many thousands of TW to replace coal this seems to me like a conserve estimate. 25% of this market would require 3x TMT's V output. At $10 or $15 (more if a viable leasing option becomes a reality) VRFB battery technology is the clear winner. The storage market will simply suck any V out of the market anytime prices dip. Rongke will be first in line.

The enormous, untapped demand for "cheap" Vanadium is more than enough to keep prices well above $10 for the foreseeable future, no matter what happens to supply.

This is why I keep investing in the sector, not only TMT as I like AVL's (slightly riskier) model too, and not only money because investing time lowers risk.

*have to exclude short term moves from any long term price prediction as demand is inelastic and markets are roller coasters that don't like stability. That's where being in the $4 club really pays off!