While lower V prices obviously harm our project economics, it’s doubly bad for companies relying on higher prices to make the return on their enormous capex look more palatable. In a roundabout way, more moderate prices in the short term could make TMT more attractive to prospective investors.
My guess is that prices will it settle around $18/lb and I wouldn’t be disappointed because that would give us annual post tax earnings of AUD$370M with an NPV of $2.1B at 58% IRR (yes, post tax!). The numbers assume a 30 year LOM which should be a forgone conclusion with more drilling.
TMT Price at posting:
39.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held