Vanadium news, page-37

Sure, never scared to draw conclusions with crayon or be proven wrong...

Bushveld 15% lower production in Q1 was really felt with Chinese inventories needing to nearly double coming into November.

"[16 day] Industrial and community action, however, disrupted production, with output of Nitrovan or vanadium nitride, almost 15% lower quarter-on-quarter at 537 mtV (metric tonnes of vanadium)."

This threw steel industry stock controllers best laid plans in a spin imo... a low volume but hard to substitute market will naturally have a volatile nature. Takes a fair bit to fill the shed so steel producers will buy in advance on the lows, simple hedging... but they couldn't get Q2 until Q2. Boom.

Inventory management, gradually increasing demand and lumpy but overall growing supply had given a gentle wave to the price curve for a year or two but November was anything but gentle.

We're now waiting for natural order return to the market. Producers will hold out as long as stock will allow before filling up again. I personally doubt it will last long judging by inventory commentary I've read over the past 6 months.

Price pull-back could easily overshoot balance but I still expect to see a higher low ($18) before the next phase.

I believe Rongke are sitting tight for a certain electrolyte order at this bottom out point which could be a catalyst to gently turn momentum upwards.

Beyond 4-6 months is a genuine guess with BMN 400t / month increased supply next to hit before Atlantic then LGO. Volatility will remain but higher Chinese demand is here to stay.