Whilst it is great watching the vanadium price go up, all that shows IMO is those getting in early and entering production in the next few years will have very quick payback periods (and that is a complete positive for AVL).
However, over the longer term we want vanadium prices to resettle around the $10 - $12 per pound mark for 98% min grade vanadium because ultimately the takeup of vanadium in say batteries is going to be also price sensitive to the price of vanadium. Having said that I expect battery grade vanadium at 99.5% to still attract a premium over 98% vanadium so expecting battery grade to get prices higher than the 98% min spec price. My views are in these posts below, but as a low cost producer AVL will still make a heap of money, but enterring the market in the next few years means a much much much quicker payback period, meaning any production after 3 years to 5 years of production will virtually be pure profit given capex would essentially be recoverable for the early movers (i.e. I suspect that is the reason why Largo's SP has had a rocket underneath it as well).
As more production comes online though their will be a settling down in price, but I can't see prices going back below US10 per pound anytime soon given the now new strategic role and focus of vanadium. And that will be a good thing because it will further lead to exponential growth in vanadium uptake IMO and hence a need for additional supply until the demand/supply equation settles. All IMO
Refer Post #: 33722977 and differences in price on grade here Post #: 34070283
All IMO
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