I am more of a fan of Tiris than Haggan; in case anyone is in doubt about it
Commentators like Rick Rule are saying the U upswing/bull-run may last 3-5 years. Imo. this will be long enough time-frame for AEE to complete DFS, drill-out a measured resource, tick off all permits, secure funding and construct the Tiris mine.
Haggan on the other hand is well behind, stage wise. The V price turned in 2016. I first invested in V in 2016. Back then I had some interest in batteries after investing in Lithium in 2015. I then looked into VRB's and was sold on their potential. The current price hike is due to Chinese rebar standards (demand) and banning V source from slag (supply). I invested in Largo when a guy I follow on Twitter posted info about the V supply from slag ban in China. The info didn't catch on because it was mostly in Chinese...
It was pure dumb luck that I have benefited from this spike. Ironically, the spike in price is not good news for VRB's. This is why some V hopefuls are pushing a staged approach: Stage 1 is 98% V for rebar; Stage 2 is 99.5% V for batteries. Stage 1 pays down the debt and funds Stage 2 expansion.
I think this bull run/prices above the LT average will only last another 2 years before new supply hits in volume. Imo, Haggan will need longer than 2 years to get to funding stage. For a start, it only has an inferred resource. There will need to be a costly and lengthy drill campaign for starters. I think permitting will be lengthy. Look at GGG as an example. I invested in GGG in 2015/16 on a failed U break-out. Made some good coin with oppies (leverage) before selling out due to fears about permitting. GGG is still awaiting permitting and like AEE has pivoted from U into something else (REE). The same guys are still posting on GGG as was the case in 2015.
The LT average price for V is about USD7/lbs*. PCY break-even is above this price point and their AISC is only marginally below.
High V prices are great for current producers or those hopefuls seeking finance to begin construction within 12 months. Imo, not so good for those at an earlier stage. That is not to say AEE/Vanadis cannot pump out a good story for a ST-MT SP hike. If the Haggan SS has a cost base in the lower quartile, say $4.25 and under, then I would say, imo, the pump is on. As I would expect a PFS/DFS to have a much higher cost base.
* LT V price chart can be seen here:
https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/01/vanadium-price-8-year-high/
(20min delay)
