I really thought it was going to hold the rally today, a good...

I really thought it was going to hold the rally today, a good run to start out the session. Another chance tomorrow morning I think, unless we get a TH.

It is a funny market and here is my take on it regarding our situation.  The effect of negative results go without saying, none of us want to be in if it happens.

Positive results are where its going to get complicated.  Why does the market often sell off on positive news and sometimes rally on bad news?  Because of deviation.   I don't think the actual result will be as important as to the deviation of that result from the 'mean expectation' of the positive result.  The big gains will come from a positive surprise. Unfortunately that is going to be harder to achieve, in my view, because we are already expecting a very good result compared to the placebo (based on the initial patient screening with standard care).  I don't think that simply passing the trial is going to be enough to see the re-rate we are all hoping for, though we should still do well enough.  If we pass the trial with less than expected results I do suspect our move will be fairly muted.  On the other hand, if we pass the trial with much better than expected results we should have a substantial re-rate.

As for my views with FTT here and now, I believe that we will pass the trial and we will see a decent up move, but I don't think we will pass it by a big enough margin (compared to the expected passing result) to surprise the market enough for the massive re-rate I would love to see.  I hope that the results are accompanied with some positive updates from TC or something positive out of left field to balance this out.  That is what is against us.

These are a few things for us:

"Factor Therapeutics is in advanced discussions with potential partners pending the outcome of the Company’s Phase 2 study of VF001",
We are only 60mil cap,
We are relatively unknown,
The Bio market is hot for winners at the moment.