ITC seems like a good growth story however I think projections of value and subsequent share price at too high \
The 7.3 million potential reserve figure is best case scenario so I think we cna discount that to about 4 million. ITC share IF succesful is 1.6 million barrels. No analyst in Australia will use an NPV per barrel above $30, however most stocks are trading at NPV per barrel of around 10. EG COE BPT TAP PPP etc etc. Therefore I would say that ITC share price is fairly valued and already prices in sum blue sky. If you use an NPV of 20 on the 1.6 (which they havent got yet) thats 32 million plus net cash after drilling costs = current SP
In a market downturn NPV can be doscunted further, at one stage during GFC COE traded at a price that zalued the 1.9 million barrles at zero and even traded below cash.
I d like the stock but I am interested sub 4
ITC Price at posting:
4.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
