That's an interesting point. You're right in that it speaks to...

That's an interesting point. You're right in that it speaks to management's belief of future share price - the question is, though, does the market share management's expectation and does management have a reasonable expectation?

The counter to this interesting point is that staff options for tech companies in this phase of growth expire all the time when companies fail to hit their targets. IMO, option price is a bit like expected value in a poker hand - it's what they expect to win based on the cards they've seen. Doesn't tell you what the market is holding, though...