valuation , page-2

hi folks - thought i would update my valuation based on recent JV
12m in reserves x 25 = 300m
add 8.7 m in new reserves . split these out 4.8 m X 15 = 72 m
2.9 in 2 p reserves 8 dollars per barrel = 23.2
65.1 in usd cash plus 67 m in RSC NPV plus 20m
( risked heavily) for future RSC value 152 m aud
Beibu 3 m barrels of resource awaiting reserve conversion on FDP approval - risk by half 3m x 12.5 per 37.5 m
Hzn free carry 10m
Other assets including 2c resource acquired 39.8 m plus chine UK and Australian 2c resource 44.8( note i exclude all china 2 c resource as i have include most above i Beibu) x 1 dollar per barrel = 44.8m
639.5 million
minus 25 m for corporate
614.5
valuation 89.5 cents

Now i haven't minused 6.25 m payment as it is likely to be covered share of production revenue. intact the first year of operations will add to cash and cash-flow. Now the big upside is how much of the 39m in 2 c resource can be converted to 2p serves over the next few years. If the can convert half , that in itself can add 300m in value assuming 15 dollar price per 2 p reserve barrel . that is the equivalent to 42 cents per share .Roc now has a short to medium term project that has the ability to add a lot of value.

Roc is likely to go much higher, the first news that will help internalise this is the quarterly report which will have the combined production and current cash position which is likely to be above USD 70m