OXX 5.26% 3.6¢ octanex limited

G'day Barry,Don't hassle for news too quickly. Its a great time...

  1. 365 Posts.
    G'day Barry,

    Don't hassle for news too quickly. Its a great time to get set here as I reckon this one is flying under the radar a little.

    From what I see...

    Acoording to the Quarterly,

    * Shell have stated that they intend to drill Palta-1 in WA 384-P in Q4 2012. They have booked the Noble Clyde Boudreaux rig for the drill.

    * Santos have the Ensco 109 rig booked to drill in WA323-P permit in Q1 13. Knowing the energy game, hopefully H1 13. OXX have a 25% free-carry here.

    From a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) perspective, OXX has some factors that limit risk (as a BESBS) and offer significant potential leverege:

    - Historically, the SP is near record lows (so should provide a relatively stable platform). The SP has been sitting between 12.5c - 14.5c for a while now.
    - Historically, drills have seen SP 100 -200% more than current levels so plenty of SP leverege
    - JV partners are reputable
    - rigs are booked
    - decent sized targets in a (by global standards) politically stable country
    - Unlikely OXX would have CR ar this low level. If it occurs, probably when SP rises further.
    - Shares seem to be tightly held. Has taken me a while to buy a decent sized parcel. When drilling occurs, this can sometimes help the SP to run if no recent CR.

    If I have to wait 12 months then at least I'll get the 50% CGT discount and if it was based on a 100-200% return, I can live with that.

    Guess we won't hear much on OXX until definite drilling news is confirmed.
 
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