valuation, page-11

G'day Barry,

Don't hassle for news too quickly. Its a great time to get set here as I reckon this one is flying under the radar a little.

From what I see...

Acoording to the Quarterly,

* Shell have stated that they intend to drill Palta-1 in WA 384-P in Q4 2012. They have booked the Noble Clyde Boudreaux rig for the drill.

* Santos have the Ensco 109 rig booked to drill in WA323-P permit in Q1 13. Knowing the energy game, hopefully H1 13. OXX have a 25% free-carry here.

From a BESBS (Buy Early Sell Before Spud) perspective, OXX has some factors that limit risk (as a BESBS) and offer significant potential leverege:

- Historically, the SP is near record lows (so should provide a relatively stable platform). The SP has been sitting between 12.5c - 14.5c for a while now.
- Historically, drills have seen SP 100 -200% more than current levels so plenty of SP leverege
- JV partners are reputable
- rigs are booked
- decent sized targets in a (by global standards) politically stable country
- Unlikely OXX would have CR ar this low level. If it occurs, probably when SP rises further.
- Shares seem to be tightly held. Has taken me a while to buy a decent sized parcel. When drilling occurs, this can sometimes help the SP to run if no recent CR.

If I have to wait 12 months then at least I'll get the 50% CGT discount and if it was based on a 100-200% return, I can live with that.

Guess we won't hear much on OXX until definite drilling news is confirmed.