Over the last couple of weeks I've done some serious number crunching & every time I come to the below numbers I re-work them because they seem too good to be true...
I can't find a hole in these figures - so please try
What we know- Mozambique is awaiting the final investment decisions (FID) for 2 major projects worth $50B USD in investment within the LNG space
- Anadarko-led project is looking at FID March / April
- Exxon / ENI -led project is looking at FID June / July
The Anadarko-led project has already secured long term deals to sell 9.5 mtpa LNG (of the 12.88 mtpa capacity). Importantly
THIS IS ABOVE THE REQUIREMENT TO SECURE FINANCING FOR THE PROJECT (as outlined in point 3 of the most recent ASX speeding ticket).
(Couple of links for the committed offtakes)
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/...-deal-for-mozambique-lng-project-fid-imminenthttps://uk.reuters.com/article/ongc...-lng-from-mozambique-block-ongc-idUKL3N20L4AOThe OpportunityIn almost every RBR presentation they say that there will be up to 50,000 construction workers required for the LNG facilities.
View attachment 1461887What gets missed in the detail, for which I believe is
UNBELIEVABLY BULLISH FOR RBR, is the following points (also in the above screenshot)
- ANADARKO HAS SELECTED ECITB AS THE STANDARD WHICH ALL LOCAL LNG WORKERS MUST MEET
- NO OTHER COMPANY IN MOZAMBIQUE IS CURRENTLY ECITB-ACCREDITED
So - we then make assumptions about how many of the 50,000 workers required are going to be sourced via RBR, given they're the ONLY company which the accreditation necessary...
The NumbersNow...
- There are 50,000 workers to be recruited for
- RBR is the only company which can do this (given it's the only one with ECITB accreditation)
But... for the sake of conservatism, say they only get 10,000 of the 50,000 workers (20%)
The revenue to RBR for each worker is c. $15/day which is the industry average over there
Revenue to RBR of - 10,000 x $15 x 365 days = $54.75m p.a
This business is also extremely high margin; they're simply 'clipping the ticket' on their employee database & all costs are mostly fixed. So being conservative again, lets assume 5m p.a or even 10m p.a. in costs... That leaves a profit figure of $45m p.a (assuming the 10m costs)
We apply a ridiculously low PE of anywhere b/w 3-5 (given its Mozambique) & we have a valuation of c. $135m-$225m
Divide by Shares on Issue of 700m
We're left with a valuation of somewhere in the 20-30c range based on only 20% of the workers being recruited via RBR (which remember is the ONLY ECITB accredited labor higher company in the country...)The RisksThe biggest risk is clearly not getting FID on the projects
BUT... The major Tier 1 O&G majors have already pre-sold 9.5mtpa of LNG from these projects which is more than the 9.0mtpa required to obtain finance for these projects...
I'm not saying its a fait accompli; but...
Anyhoo - as I said, please help me find holes in this !
(20min delay)
