The SP will need to at least triple to reward long-term...

The SP will need to at least triple to reward long-term suffering shareholders. Even then the return would be mediocre at best if this was over 3-5 years (unless you got in at these prices!)

If this goes to $2 in 5 years, that's like a 15% annual return, assuming your cost base was $1 (very few shares traded under $1). For the many with higher cost bases, or those participating in the last equity raise..Imagine if you had participated back when they were raising money at $2... the length of time that has already passed, plus the future time - the kind turnaround the CAT share price would need to achieve for there to be a decent return those poor shareholders, whoever is left... 5x, 6x in the next 5 years?

But yeah, if you get in now, and if it does turnaround to whatever investors were hoping for back when they were buying this for $2+ a share, your return would be pretty wicked..

I think CAT is a lesson for me of failing to preserve my capital. Relieved that my holding is so small (now).