US shale oil hitting the skids, page-110

"Does all the hype surrounding Iran barrels really justified the huge fall we are seeing given that the US production will start falling dramatically this year??"

The market just keeps reacting to every negative report and seems to ignore what's staring it in the face, which is that US production has a long way to fall and there is nothing that will hold it up. Many US shale companies will fail before the price reverts to anywhere near breakeven for them. So I'm predicting the decrease in US oil production will accelerate much faster than Iran can fill any gap (barring any serious instability in the region which could easily catch the shorters napping ). The storage inventory that has built up will dampen the oil price increase at first but the all important thing is the supply demand balance going forward and as soon as the market sees the oversupply (gap) closing due to falling US production the oil shorters will be forced to reverse their positions meaning a long and sustainable change in trend in price. Once the upward trend takes hold there will be no reversal until a new balance is found. I liked DLS for its exaggeratedly high proportion of conventional oil production and so it seems do the people who put the BPT/DLS merger together. Pity DLS shareholders have to suffer the folly of others through this deal. Hopefully the new size that the merger offers the market in a potentially rising oil price trend will make up for the dilution we will suffer through BPT's lower quality of assets. Eshmun