The weather is a chaotic system so predicting rain a month or more out is just a statistical exercise. Predicting the failure of a biotech company is much easier because success is based on an unbroken chain of progress. All you need to predict failure is knowledge that one step out of many has a probability of success near zero. This is why I can tell you with high probability the companies that will fail, but I can't tell you which ones will succeed.
US Awakening, page-87
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