Hi All41
The US markets priced this in a few days ago BUT they are following the wrong beast IMHO. Assuming that the economic tipping point happened some years ago with debt expansion it wouldn't really matter whether Trump or Sanders were President.Whether or not there is more helicopter money on the way in the US …….. the global picture is much bigger than the US.
Nobody was surprised that Trump was rude to his Argentinian host Macri at the G20. Stage walk-offs and the like make good reading for some punters but at the cost of shifting attention away from what may actually be important.
While on politics, Trump is as good as gone now it is revealed that he was offering Putin a $50m penthouse on the top of a proposed Trump Tower in Moscow DURING the 2016 election campaign. $50m for Putin it would have been irritating pocket money but he obviously saw value in stringing Trump along for as long as possible. Even Kushner is calling Trump a black swan these days ( media spin aside this connotation is negative).
When Trump falls either Pence or Ryan will take the chair. Pence is an arrogant, articulate fiscal hawk and I would expect major policy shifts if he took the role. Ryan comes over to me as more of an old fashioned conservative and I don't know enough to say much more ………. but either way we could be looking at anew administration seeking to rebalance the US Government budget. That's a possible black swan event but for the moment I remain more concerned about interest rates impeding the roll over junk bonds and emerging market sovereign debt.
cheers
