now this is a good subject! good to see someone engage in a fact...

now this is a good subject!  good to see someone engage in a  fact based discussion.

But - as to your numbers... utter nonsense

LH  ran at c1 $US35.1/lb cost  Sep qtr according to the quarterly.

Then in most recent preso they say they are hoping to reduce c1 cost by 6% over fy15. They dont make it clear whether thats against the $31 pre production slowdown number  or the Sep $35 figure - so youd have to assume $35 - ie a reduction of $2.10/lb.

So c1 cost not likely to be less than $US32/lb in remainder fy 15. Agree costs may be lower in fy16 - but who cares as by then the refinance will have been done or not and the cost or benefit will be in the sp.

As mentioned, c3 costs - ie the non direct opex costs are approx $20/lb.

So NPAT breakeven at PDN corporate level - assuming no particular nuances of d&A, goodwill ect - would be $US52/lb.

there is no evidence in what ive read to substantiate any meaningful reduction in fy15 c3 all in sustaining costs.  I guarantee - if a $30 p& i repayment was going to susbtantially reduce All in sustaining costs they would flag it in bold.

But even if i took your $30m early repayment proposition at face value - across 5.4m/lbs thats a maximum of $5.55/lb principal + interest so say $us6/lb 'saving' - so bank balance shrinks to $170m but breakeven would become $US46/lb.

I dont buy that number - but at least it makes for a good argument as to why PDN should be increasingly become a BUY.

But PDN would still be loss making December quarter.

But this is a good discussion - if you have math to differ from what I;ve outlined please lay it out for us