EXT saved my butt in the end as the TO happened 1 week before Fukushima. Overall I was up big time due to EXT but it would have been so much more different without Fukushima since I was really over loaded on U sector.
Unfortunately I am not after a trade and you can make a lot of coin in the current bullish U sector. I am looking ahead but I can't see real growth from demand in the future without supply manipulation. I remain skeptical.
Vanadium is still a very early potential in the scheme of things but with the way electricity is taking off from EV which is still at the infancy if selling 1M new EV in a 98M ICE market is a gauge of how small the EV market really is. N power is still an important makeup in the energy source mix but Fukushima will take a long time for that generation to forget, not help by yearly Japanese earthquake that anticipate Tsunami on each piece of breaking news.
In the midst of the Trump trade war, the economic conditions remain very fluid. A strong USD, bond yields rising, great US job figures, more than expected Feds rate rise in the multiples, the key event to measure is the stock markets of the 2 warring nations. US stocks going gangbuster while the Chinese counterpart is collapsing and we are caught in the middle very heavily dependent on commodity exports hence we see the AUD behaving like an EM one. Look at the 10year - 3 month bond yields spread and you see why a lot of experts are now forecasting US might go into recession 2019/2020 at this rate.
On the flip side Tax fiscal stimulus by Trump may change things and keep that growth freight train moving forward.
South Oz may be a small player BUT it is a precedent. A model policy if you look deeper from its renewables investments and dependency through to electricity storage post electricity crisis recently by the adoption of Tesla grid storage battery source. AND now we have further enhancement in exploiting the millions of solar panel on rooftops just crying out for cheap battery storage instead of selling the excess electricity back to the power suppliers effectively subsidising their cost through indirect infrastructure spend by the householder.
I was waiting for a state or sovereign policy shift in this direction of renewable storage capture as the trigger for solar/wind to rectify the base load issue of which N power can address in a 'green' way. It is a risk reward thing with U, high risk but high return if the punt is correct.
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