1- ok
2- not sure what you mean by assimilated... like i said, there were around 48 new reactors built in the last 7 years and currently there are ~450 reactors in operation. whether cost overruns within projects happen or not, these are all mega projects. think about it, if a NPP is built right, you have a 40 year 100% clean and 90%+ reliable power source AJ. until we find something superior to that, nuclear isn't going anywhere, irrespective of cost overruns.
"Can you base your faith on very thinly traded spot future prices when the majority are contract pricing that is off the market intelligence with all parties jealously guarding those negotiated contracts?"
i try and base my faith on some simple maths and common sense, joe, particularly with investing. there is no jealousy here going on btw. the kazahks are the biggest producer and they were the first ones to cut. that is sending signals through the industry and producers are reducing output significantly from canada to australia. these long term contracts that youre talking about are at higher prices and now the suppliers want to be able to at least break even after a period of reduced profitability. suppliers are buying out their contracts in the spot market, which i suspect should put floors on price at $21plb? thats at least what yellow cake paid and they are up +10% since listing. that should mean at least that the price of U should be at least about ~23.50 right about now. spot shows 26.10 and moving. UF6 prices are also showing signs of a reversal upwards. to me this = limited downside, higher upside.
"if you believe those 400+ will require a lot of U, why are the big producers tapering off their production?" - tapering off production is one of want and one of need. the economics just do not support current output so why not just wait until more reactors are built and secondary inventories draw down to a point where prices become economical again. i don't really think "others" could come in and lead to the economic demise of majors. in your scenario, if prices hit $30plb then boss resources could just come online and produce at what they claim is $25plb? i don't believe they will reach nameplate production that easily and i would imagine that initial costs would swell up the actual cash cost of getting a pound of U. you can see how this would be a common problem for start ups, IF they are permitted to produce. i imagine utilities don't want back alley operations as a source of fuel.
haha, the japs definitely screwed the U market over. in the course of 3-4 years they dumped probably about some 70M pounds on market. look at them now though, restarting 9 reactors and slowly beginning to accept its importance in their energy grid- nobody wants to eat two-headed sushi in a hot restaurant with no AC... and they want that light on cheap, and instantly!
U is such a contrarian bet. youre either in it or youre out. timing is crucial. i bought boe at a high and had to wait a few months to liquidate my position, just so i could buy PDN at .12 and that has worked ok so far. i will be adding more next week to average up.
i am long oil so i know what you mean with sticking with what works.
"in concluding, what a joke to design electrical backup power at sea level in Fukushima and use statistics to number crunch the low risks"
- i find you quite nonsensical at times but i 100% agree. it was really mans idiocy that lead to the meltdown at Daiichi. that back up power should not have been stored inside of trucks. goes without saying that all nuclear reactor incidents, our own demise, can be prevented. whether they do who knows, but i hope its a while until the next one.
on a last note, look at the pdn chart. what I've done so far is gone "digging" for value in that .11-.15 hole and found a pdn black swan that was still breathing so i brought her up above ground at 20 cents and is in recovery. i think that .18-.215 range was the thought of how high she can fly once healthy again. he vital signs are at 26.10 plb so really we want her to be at 27.50plb before we see any progress. check her out sometime.
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