Firstly the greenhouse effect advantages balance the radiation effects since society is driven by greed and fear. Secondly those 400+ reactors perceived to be planing to building stage have been assimilated since 2005! I was reading them back then from China to Saudi Arabia having dreams to go nuclear. I just digress to the Hinchley Point funding issue, supposedly underwritten by Areva then taken up by the Japs and now in limbo? This is just one reactor.
A belief system/ideology is just that. If they come true we see a good sustained recovery at least in the spot price. Pull up a U futures chart and you see a perceived recovery no doubt about that. Came off a very low base uneconomic pricing hence you see the symptoms of Kzaks/Cameco reducing production. Can you base your faith on very thinly traded spot future prices when the majority are contract pricing that is off the market intelligence with all parties jealously guarding those negotiated contracts?
Personally there is only price for me. If I buy then I will manage my paper gain in fortunate circumstances otherwise I pray it doesn't hit my stop. The logic is that market participants are very forward looking and when it filters down to me that there are 400+ plants being built and I see spot price trying to pick itself off the very low base with the big producers cutting their production, I might be the be the only mug believing in that divergence about to converge. If you believe those 400+ will require a lot of U, why are the big producers tapering off their production? To give others a chance to come online and profit from their uneconomic demise? The people with a finger on the market pulse are Cameco. You can I are trying to guess timing.
Too many assumptions since I anticipate currently if price recovers, it will temporary boost the sector. If the longer term fundamentals are just based on supply taken out then without a demand push it is a spike.
The closest experience I can refer is the 2015 collapse in IOP. The smaller producers without the weight of a strong BS/cash flow got squeezed while the major producers kept on producing record tonnage before the price reversed. Logic dictates otherwise but the market is entirely different to U sector. Those who kept picking bottoms found spikes through their hands and the smaller players were wiped out permanently.
I wish I became a contrarian on Coal sector when all the experts were predicting the end of this usage. Flip a thermal/coking coal futures chart. Do you see loads of new coal fired power stations being built? In the meantime I'll stick to the tried and tested sectors and avoid the exotics. I blame the bloody Japs with their smoke and mirror tactics covering up time bombs in their N plants upkeep sweeping all the risks under the 'carpet'. They phuck the industry with their lies and distortion of the truth on a need to know basis even when the meltdown was occuring! They can now swim in all that radiation and continuous radioactive deliberate spillage into the sea with impunity. They get what they reap and I rather they don't switch anymore of those outdated N reactors.
In concluding, what a joke to design electrical backup power at sea level in Fukushima and use statistics to number crunch the low risks. What they forgot unlike an insurance company is that all it takes is just one phuck up black swan to get buried. This is what the IRA said during the Brighton bombing, "We only need to be lucky once".
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