The challenge is, you can't just instantly bring supply back...

The challenge is, you can't just instantly bring supply back online for operations that move to C&M. And even if you could there's no guarantee that those majors will, if it doesn't suit their P&L. Think back recently in the zinc market, where latent supplies didn't hit the market the moment prices moved higher. It first moved significantly higher. Also, talking about Namibian supply hitting the market, it's a much different game to say iron ore, where cheap African ore was a huge shadow over future s&d of that market. The lead time from dig to sales is 8-10 years I believe. I can envisage spot pushing towards $40/lb over the next 12 months, which will mean a term market of say $50-55/lb perhaps. That's a more reasonable price, where decent supply can change hands and producers lock in profits.

I'd rather have at least some skin in this thesis now and already seeing some gains, hopefully we've seen a bottom, looking that way.