"But it’s the same idea or even moreso in the uranium market, where there just wouldn’t be the spare capacity out there without participation from the majors. Since u projects are so overburdened with regulatory hurdles and an uneconomical current price environment, you can’t expect any slack to be picked up by new entrants coming online. "
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That spare capacity was uneconomical hence Cameco had to go C&M. If this industry is not over burdened by regulation, imagine all those Namibian explorers cranking up supply to meet a weak market.
What this industry needs is a sustained demand, not just a supply control because that way supply is artificial and just waiting for price rather than demand. You can see Zinc since GFC went nowhere for almost a decade and folks kept looking at the warehouse storage volume at LME to reduce and then claim that there is demand pressure. Each time magically Zinc supply gets dump on to LME stockpiles as price recovers.
What is your believe that there is future sustainable demand for U energy source?
Hinkley point took forever to fund the multi-billion station.
"Ultimately, we still need uranium and I am of the belief that “supply creates its own demand”. And since there are no readily available substitutes for all current electrical generation"
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There is only a need for this power source in a few countries namely France and Japan. Both are unable to provide locally available other energy source that is cheap such as coal and only recently has wind and solar played an integral part to European supply. Cannot rely on such unpredictable source through weather. Germany decided to shut down their N power post Fuku including some Jap plants.
This is what I mean when I say demand push rather than artificial deficit of supply if the U prices is going on a sustainable rally. The 2017 price spiked trapped a few punters thinking it was the low and price returned to the downward trend front running the anticipation of Japan U policy changes. It didn't happen with so much resistance by the public!
Meanwhile other energy source without the negative impact of outlier industrial mishaps are progressing as they fund research on generation then storage. If I have time on my hands wrt investment timeline which I don't have, I would be betting on grid storage vanadium redox battery technology.
My strategy is while U is trying to find a base before a sustainable growth, my investment focus is better spend chasing elsewhere. Just imagine we finally get acceptance of the benefits of N power that outweighs the risk of Fuku and Chernobyl and we wake up to another Lombok style earthquake on the Jap east coast. Would you trust what is coming out of Tepco's mouth again? Any U investors out there game enough to spent a week holidaying on the beaches of Fuku and eating 2 headed sushi fish?
(20min delay)
