CWN has underperformed in the market due to the perception that investors have that the Macau business is dead due to corruption crack downs, and china stock market crunch, thus leading to a drop off in VIP business.
The drop off in revenue is correct (34% from pcp) BUT:
1) CWN only own 34% of MPEL,
2)the mix of business from Macau is changing over time from high rollers to the mass market ($27 bill US in new casinos being built in Macau right now to take advantage of the change in market) and will encourage longer term holiday makers,
3) China isn't dead,
4)MPEL have a new casino opening in 3 weeks in Macau (hopefully on 200 tables going to 250 by Christmas),
5) Australian business for CWN is growing ahead of GDP,
6)SP is cheap compared to 6 moths ago,
7) interest ratios for CWN are 5.77 X,
8)James Packer is still very much part of the story, owning 50% of CWN,
9) The shorts have had a field day,
and 10) The market bottom for XJO might just be in now.
Good luck and good punting.
