HowdyDecided to take some profits over the last 2 weeks.ABB .....

Howdy

Decided to take some profits over the last 2 weeks.

ABB .. which I spoke about a few weeks ago seems to have stalled in its run up and have offloaded around $5.75 .... thinking that with a run up of over 100 % in the last 6 months maybe time for a pullback. By selling now yes you miss out on the dividend. Just have a feeling the price may pull back 5-10 % from here. ABB still remains a very good company and with announcements recently regarding record grain receipts as well as changes to their dividend distribution policy the market should be supported. Would like to start buying back on a pullback to around $5.40-$5.00.

CEY ... again I am selling out. As a long term holder for many years the price has rallied from 50 cents to $2.80
in just over 3 years. Excellent management ... this is obvious ... however I believe the current rally for CEY to break all time highs is a mistake and I have taken my money and are running. My problem is that with the AUD/USD appreciation the loss of income for coal companies is a nett negative 15% at AUD/USD 0.7700 once the companies exchange rate hedge runs out. I will not be looking to buy into this company again for some time unless the currency situation improves.

COA ... Coates ... again a long term investment ... coates hitting all time highs .. it has run from under $1.00 late 2001 to a high of $3.40 this week. Again well run and had some luck late 2001. Management is very good but I would have to say extremely conservative and constantly gets its profit forecasts wrong ... always they estimate under what they actually make. Late in 2001 this company was very attractive due to the fact it was trading at 50% of its NTA. Management came out late 2001 and hosed down profit expectations which sent the price lower ... as it turned out the actual numbers diverged to a great extent from what management was calling. I no longer as of yesterday have a financial interest in the company. At current levels I feel it is no longer good valueand would not be until we saw $2.00- $2.40.

SFE ... liked SFE when it started breaking up around $2.50 in March 2003 ... company has a monopoly on futures trading in Australia. Price has run up strongly since then but stalling here at $5.40 .... it was time to take the money and run. Whilst SFE has a monopoly on the futures market at present ... as we have seen their is nothing stopping anyone setting up a rival futures exchange in the futures. With the demise of their only rival over 12 months ago and some speculation regarding the ASX possibly taking over SFE is what has been driving the price up. Personally feel the ASX will never be able to take ove the SFE. From memory ACCC was not at all amused when approached a few years ago and cannot see their views have changed. That being said still believe some senior management at the SFE was expecting something from the ASX and the price mumbled was $6.50 .... but it aint going to happen .... SFE I beleive at $5.40 was fully priced even for the small chance I thought of a takeover. Not looking to re - establish a position here anywhere near current levels.

CTX ... Again hitting all time highs $5.90 ish. I purchased CTX around the same time I purchased COA ... late 2001 .... and for the same reason. CTX .. caltex .. was trading at less than 50% of its NTA. Like coates it had profit downgrades ... and the share price had been hammered. Still didn't change the fact it had a massive retail network and was a well known brand name. In two and a half years since late 2001 it has gone from an equivelant of $1.20 to $5.80. At current levels the same as coates it does not represent good value. Market looks strong and maybe goes higher ... however if you look at a long term chart the market can be very fickle with a company like caltex. Market back in 1992 went from $2.20 to $5.75 in 1996 ... then back to its lows 4 years later. Maybe we havn't seen its high but I shall not be greedy.

GRD ... liked GRD when it broke up about 6 months ago
from $1.10/$1.20 .... currently feels stalled around $2.10. Same story as CEY .. centennial coal ... the AUD/USD has gone up far more than the gold price in USD ... the effect on gold producers once their hedge runs out is again a loss of around 15% in real terms for each ounce of gold produced. Time to run .... longer term would like a substantial pullback before getting back in.

VIT .... did a post on this last night ... look it up ... just put a small amount of captial into this one. In short it has a compound of vitamin E that directly targets heart disease. Just announced it is taking over the company that made the discovery ... raising its stake from 33% to 100% ... and at the same time spinning off one other company it has assets in so each shareholder gets a 1/10 vit shares held in the new entity. Suggest you read all the company announcements for the last 12 months. It is a very spec company however if you read the announcements ... well ... just read them make up your own mind. Personally only have 3% of capital in this company ... not my usual sort of thing as you can see.

Bottom line on all the companies I have sold out over the last 2 weeks ... they no longer represent good value and some run the risk of serious damage to their profits from the exchange rate.


Good Luck to all

I have an indirect or direct interest in VIT,GRD,PBL,ABB,FUN,AGL,MBL and a few more