Thanks to all the in depth analysis people have undertakenand...

Thanks to all the in depth analysis people have undertakenand posted on the various threads. I’ve enjoyed reading them, including thedifferences of opinion!

 

Reading the various opinions I thought I’d add to the analysisand dust off an old tool I used once upon a time for mining studies – Monte Carloanalysis – to compare key value drivers for Rupice being discussed;  namely grade/tonnage/net smelter return/geologyetc.   

 

Essentially the analysis is an accepted method to investigaterisk and probabilities of a range of outcomes using 1000’s simulations ofdifferent (random) combinations of input variables. In the interests of transparencyI have detailed the key inputs used in the table below.

 

Summary of InputVariables/Sources:

Variable	Min	Mean	Max
Grade ZnEq	USGS - Bi Modal Mafic 10th pct	Length Wgt Average Drill results to date	USGS - Bi Modal Mafic 90th pct
Tonnage	Critical Investor 2MT	Pamplona Trader 6MT	USGS - Bi Modal Mafic 90th pct
NSR (Net Smelter Return AUD$)	Tonnes x NSR Mean - 70	Pamplona Trader - 200USD/267AUD	Tonnes x NSR Mean + 70

 

Summary Results for 10,000Simulations:

 

		Tonnage	NSR x Tonnes
1	Minimum	2,003,917	509,933,064
2	First Quartile	4,616,453	1,227,610,643
3	Mean	6,548,342	1,746,580,037
4	Median	6,375,992	1,696,353,176
5	Third Quartile	8,235,379	2,197,270,151
6	Maximum	14,991,205	4,131,789,372

 

 

 

Brief Discussion

In terms of probabilities there is a 55% probability thatRupice’s tonnage is between 5 to 8 million tonnes and a 28% probability that Rupicecould be above 8 million tonnes. Pretty good odds from where I stand.

 

As the deposit increases in size these probabilities willchange for the better as the new information shifts the distribution.

 

Just to reiterate what has been said before, I’d like to seemanagement test the maximum tonnage case for Rupice case as soon as practical. Especially as the larger concession is now secure and funding is locked in. Thisincludes extensions to BJ, faulted offsets, depth repetition, strike/plungeextensions etc.

 

Limitations

…LOTS! But I won’t go into them here…

At the end of the day it is a useful tool to look at upside(lots IMO), downside (not much IMO) and project risk sensitivities. This is notmeant to be an absolute analysis but an informed view of some of the key valuedrivers at this point in time.

 

For those not familiar with this type of analysis here’s somelinks:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/monte-carlo-multivariate-model.asp

http://minewiki.engineering.queensu.ca/mediawiki/index.php/Monte_Carlo_simulation

 

DYOR

 

Lies, damn lies andstatistics.