There's much confusion and people are reading far too much into...

There's much confusion and people are reading far too much into this. Firstly, not sure ion the fixation about CH4 with no HC. CH4 is a hydrocarbon, and I would be more than happy to see big mobs of it. I assume you meant no traces of other HCs. I certainly don't understand the discussion on water coning. Surely a sign of that would be a change in the fluid composition, but the fluid they have recovered to date is identical to the mud they pumped down. They have stated this very clearly. I think the odds remain that we have a gas discovery, and it may well be commercial when combined with the Anderson formation resource. I think there remains potential for oil at depth in the Nullara which may even mean further downdip.

I have no concerns about apparent decline in production rate as they probably shut the well in well before releasing the rig. In terms of overall permeability, it's great here, and was marginal at Pt Torment, but it still flowed, so I think odds are that connectivity is there. Clearly there was enough permeability to lose the 12000 bbls very quickly.