update, page-18

stja - I agree that I don't see an announcement until mid October at the earliest (I think no sooner then late October actually) and agree to sit and wait.

With respect to your other questions, here is my understanding.

* BMG do currently own a 40% interest in Hawsons. They needed to make the next payment of $25M to move up to 51%. BMG being out of time triggers the option for their 40% interest to be sold at $13M. I think (but am not certain) that BMG (or the new holder of the JV if sold) could still pay the $25M and move to 51%.

* The liquidator needs to realise all of BMG's assets at market value. This could involve obtaining a valuation of BMG's interest under the Hawsons JV and selling it at that price. Liquidators will often use an auction to sell a company's plant & equipment because there can be no dispute that it was sold at market value - provided that the auction was properly promoted. It's a bid hard to have an auction for BMG's interest in Hawsons - but the equivalent could be promote the sale (being the online advert) requesting expressions of interest and negotiate with anyone who expresses an interest and thereby achieving substantiation that the asset was sold at market value price at the time it was sold.

* If CAP was to offer $2M and there were no other offers, then the liquidator could either re-advertise and try again or sell to CAP at the price offered by CAP. I think this is actually a realistic possibility. Whilst the drop in iron ore prices may assist, I think the real issue is whether a new JV partner wants to step in to exactly the same terms as BMG or just wishes negotiate their own terms after CAP regains 100%. If you were a steel mill, you may wish to negotiate an off take agreement at a discounted price as part of the JV and you couldn't do that by buying BMG's interest. Even if ASI want to be the JV partner, the might choose to wait until CAP regains 100% and then offer a similar deal but with lower cash payments (and in this market, that would still be a great outcome for CAP IMO).

* If any one other than CAP bought the JV interest, they would need to be prepared to make the $25M payment to CAP asap - otherwise they would be at risk of anyone buying the 40% they just bought as the JV is currently in default.

Therefore, I see the possible options as:
(1) JV being sold and CAP getting $25M very shortly thereafter, or
(2) CAP buying back the JV few only a few million to obtain 100% of Hawsons and then opening up discussions with other JV partners for a new JV on mutually beneficial terms.

Whilst I might prefer the first, I think the latter is more likely. The only question in my mind is whether we will know the outcome in October or have to wait until December.

Either way, happy to hold and be there at the right time - especially given low volumes currently being traded.