Depends on the segment of the commercial market and the...

Depends on the segment of the commercial market and the composition of the overall portfolio of business held by each individual brokerage.  Some segments of the insurance market have hardened much more rapidly (financial lines for example, particularly D&O with all of the securities class actions that have occurred and are otherwise being considered by plaintiff firms).

I'd be interested to read your thoughts on the P/E of AUB to SDF. Does the AUB business model fundamentally result in a lower P/E compared to its competitors? One thing that AUB struggles with in my view is the double-edged sword of the co-ownership model. You're buying a majority stake in practitioners who are looking to realise their equity. Once the earn out period if over, these practitioners generally can't/won't sell the remaining equity to staff (as they're not paying the same multiples) and AUB has a blocking stake preventing them from effectively selling to any other party. They get disillusioned and their performance (disregarding the prevailing insurance market conditions) deteriorates. There has only been one sale of an AUB brokerage (quite a substantial one) in its history.

My broader view is that now is a good time to purchase shares in AUB/SDF as brokers income should organically grow over the foreseeable future with the hardening cycle.