Update - Premium rate increases

Someone today forwarded me some broker research that indicated that premiums for commercial lines are running closer to 10% in the DH2018 vs pcp.

Given AUB's FY2019 guidance was based on average premium increases of 5%, it stands to reason that the company will have a cracking first-half result, and could beat management's guidance quite handsomely, if things continue like this in the current half-year.

Of course, this is a bit of a double-edged sword, because while it provides a boost to short-term profitability for AUB, it does the same for all brokers.

And, being an industry aggregator, AUB would probably far prefer trying to negotiate with vendors when their businesses are experiencing cyclical lows, as opposed to being a prospective buyer of competitors when things are booming.