I don't want to write this all again, so I am just going to copy...

I don't want to write this all again, so I am just going to copy an email I sent to a Commodities Analyst at Thomson Reuters, that I am sharing research with.

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Hi Andy,

I found the Peruvian mines rather difficult to delve into. This was because of poor quality and detail of data and language used on various websites and pages etc.

I thought it safer to use ILZSG data, which concluded that 200ktpa was lost last year, so I had factored in half of that previously for 2012.

Thanks for the info re: Neves Corvo. I think at this stage I won't factor it in because I haven't (for example) included the possibility that Century may add 230ktpa of lost production in 2014.
See: http://emetalprices.com/zinc-prices-may-remain-soft-in-h2-2012-barclays/

Teck also appears to be having problems with Red Dog's replacement mine (i.e. grades and recovery at Aqqaluk). Zinc production for 2012 will be about 51ktpa less and has been confirmed by Teck.

Any updated links and numbers are in the attached.

Brief summary:

- Added the McArthur River expansion of 200tkpa tp 2016, but it's no certainty as the project faces some environmental opposition.
- Moved Ozernoye back to 2015.
- Moved Dugald River forward two years based on new update
- Added the Bracemac McLeod Mine to 2013.

And China is somewhat difficult. Bit like Peru.

Back in 2006, a lot of black-market zinc came out of nowhere in China once the price jumped well above $1.10. These are guys literally digging it out of the countryside with their hands and crude equipment.

However, I note this recent article by Scrap Monster - who put out some great stuff occasionally.
http://www.scrapmonster.com/news/china-zinc-demand-to-outstrip-mine-production-antaike/1/5181

Cheers,