OIP 0.00% 4.3¢ orion petroleum limited

I think what you are suggesting is that the price has recovered...

  1. 781 Posts.
    I think what you are suggesting is that the price has recovered from its recent low of 8.5cents or thereabout.
    Typically, I would have taken profit by now, thinking that a short term profitable trade would be good enough and wait to buy back in.

    But something has happened since that have changed the landscape for this share, and that is, as a result of the sale of 19.99% to STO, the re-rating of its next door neighbour, ESG, who is also the largest single shareholder and which shares a number of common directors, including Ashley Edgar and David Casey (albeit as alternate).

    As a result of the sale, we can now start to model the value of the leases that OIP has. Hardmano and I have both suggested prices that are far above current levels, I will recap quickly.
    OIP and ESG claim that the 3 JV leases, PEL 427, 428 and 455, contain an estimated 3,500 BCF of Gas in Place.
    We discount this to 50% for recoverable (gas has higher recoverability than oil, depending on structures of course).
    We are left with 1,750 BCF of gas in place, approx 1,750 PJ.
    The STO purchase places a low range value of $0.66 per GJ, there are 1 million GJ in a PJ, therefore 1,750 PJ equates to 1,750,000,000 GJ which at $0.66 per GJ is $1,155,000,000.
    However, OIP retains only between 20% and 40% of these leases, lets work on 20%.
    There are 155M shares on issue, my metrics gave me a result of $1.49 per share.

    Note this excludes their conventional oil and gas plays in those same leases, PEL 6 and the whole Darling Basin system.

    I am therefore thinking that this is not a stock to trade, it is another ESG in the making, it is what you can use to buy your next house with! IMO.
    If enough other investors believe the same, then this will carry the stock to a new level.

    From a charting aspect, if the SP breaks the previous high ot $0.19, blue sky. Thats enough of my diatribe for today.

    Good night and good luck!
 
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