"We can never buy at the lowest and sell at the highest - anyone who says they have done so are either fibbers or plain lucky."
Yes you can!!! you give me one stock and i'll look into it for you. you need to understand the underlying value of the business, its market drivers and trends, then micro/marco outlook e.g FLT lots of retirees looking to spend their accumulated property wealth on seeing the world with a less stress approach of having a travel consultant who is contactable 24/7. FLT also have diversified into owning some of the tour operators as well/bicycles/and well time USA/world acquisitions/property sales
Well after 15 years, and seeing my FLT go from green to red during the GFC (i was 200k in debt during this time and have never used gearing since, i only will if another GFC happens) i obviously bought more to average down (from buy at e.g. $16 up to 32 then down to mid 3's during GFC then powered up to mid 50's (sold from 25 up to 49) then FLT came back down 28 (bought more) and now back to mid 50's again)
so I am just selling as i think its topping out (nothing personal FLT, look at the graph and you'll see the ranges) plus I am focussed on buying a house out right - no loan, and MHO is that their will be a debt led property correction starting mind 2019 - so i am selling to keep powder dry. Selling Banks and reducing resource stocks after going hard BHP from 19 down to $14 and back up to 17, Rio from 51 down to 46 and 39 back up to 43.
If you look at the chart you'll see - I have learnt to trade the ranges now after 2o yrs of investment experience. I learnt many years ago that i'll never pick the bottom or the top but i can make solid money in between the ranges. Sorry its easier for me to prove to you a snapshot from my spreadsheet (I haven't updated my recent sell/trades yet for tax so not there) not actual contract notes so you'll just have to believe me. Plus i am honest - I have lost over 100k on SDL and SLX but I am up 7bags on ASL and MQG has been my top performer overall inc Dividends so i am up 7x my losses luckily. Oh I am now at Uni doing a business degree and this has taken me at the age of 40 to understand i should have invested in myself and my education/career - instead of any wealth creation as i think i would have been even more successful - so invest in yourself first! do a trading/career course or 3 - I did
If you want a hot tip COE (gas east coast about to double in next 12mths, all my research in the last 4years has been tight supply gas market on the east coast - nearly shat myself with government intervention, but there is less risk from them now i think, and my recent economics subjects has helped identify market demand and supply = gas at $10 Pj)
In all honesty i grew up in a housing commission house and thought i wasn't smart enough to be a business person so thought i'd invest in smart bus. people instead (this didn't pay off that well for 10yrs). Ironically I renovated my mums first property when i was 17 and knew property better than shares. in hindsight i should have stuck with property looking at double story victorians in carlton Melbourne for 330k when i started looking in 1999 but had no support to take that chance (wage was $7.05 p/h apprenticeship) with 20k in my pocket. So hard work and years later here we are, good luck
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