Originally posted by 7benson7
I was taken by surprise yesterday, can't claim otherwise. The markets disappointment I believe was the lack of improvement from the bass case.
Why? Largely because the drill results came too close to release date to incorporate the additional resource or geotechnical data. Hope was that all that drilling would give us a longer mine life, a steeper pit wall giving rise to a lower cash cost. Make no mistake, $4.15 is world class but we had this considering Cu and Ni previously. We already had 17 years. We needed more to justify the delay.
The next problem, presentation. Get a new secretary ffs. Having a great team doesn't stop with technical know how, we need to be able to communicate properly. You had all weekend to get it right. I expect clearer tables, an easy to find discount rate, a better exec summary and a DFS update. I, like many work off my phone 75% of the time and still haven't had a chance to sit down at a screen and pull apart the detail.
I pondered earlier in the month that PFS reaction would also be closely linked to the trajectory of the V2O5 price. This was simply an inevitable moment in time that has brought fear in the market about the commodity. It is not well understood and frankly yet to prove itself. Until this pull-back finds a base, smart money isn't coming in. To be expected. Means there's even more armed and ready when steel mills next need to top up and the price bottoms. While it's falling they'll hold on from ordering and in a physical only market the price will fall until 3-4 weeks supply is eaten into. January an entirely different story, watch.
Timing. Bad luck maybe but poorly managed. Obviously the release date couldn't move an inch to allow inclusion of the most recent drill data so then explain the nearly 6 month delay? Justify why this took longer to prepare and how this puts us in a better position to publish an early DFS. My confidence that management have been pushing towards production as quickly as possible has been hit and will take some repairing.
Too many experts? They all want to make sure nothing is missed. Sometimes you have to pick it up on the next pass instead of doubling back. Last drill campaign is a case in point. Get out of your comfort zone, drilling's done now boys it's on to the next step.
Having said what needed to be said, nothing's changed. They will get there. They genuinely need someone to step up but the resource is excellent and the commodity is still in a broader upward move. I am certain that 2019 will see new highs for V2O5, a DFS, binding offtake and funding for both gabba camps.
The best thing about 2018 is that this close takes the risk of the next market crash off the table. Somewhere around here there's value in whatever you want to buy and once a base is formed I think we're in better shape than most to profit.
7benson7: "The best thing about 2018 is that this close takes the risk of the next market crash off the table."
How so?? IF the markets are to crash, AVL could easily go quite a bit lower, i.e. into the low 1's territory (where AVL was hanging around for quite some time in the past... Also, IF the markets were to crash (I HOPE NOT!!) then the financing of this whole project will become a longer drawn out prospect - JIMHO, of course.
For now, I do believe that MOST here are NOT really pleased with this new miserable share-price. But I am newly just holding and would/will only add more AVL to my portfolio when I can foresee a clear TIME-FRAME towards production emerging - hopefully in the not too distant future.
(20min delay)
