Miningnut:
"I don't believe that Allied Properties would be a quick seller but Nicolas Mathys(15.3mil shares) and COL Capital(10.7mil shares) might want out in the short term. I think the market in Hong Kong will be able to absorp this 26mil shares and there might already be plans in place for these shares to find a new home."
One substantial indication is that none of the current owners are not announced to mark
any shares, not even Allied properties, which rather gave short term loan.
So Hong Kong would need to absorb:
-26 million shares from current big owners, assuming FRIL (Future rise, 10.3 mil shares ) and Mathys (15.7 mil shares)
- 41,8 million shares 47.03 % of the Australian shares belonging to smaller owners
- 50 million new shares issued in Hong Kong
That would be 117,8 million shares and 41,2 million A$ (0.35A$ /share)
with Allied Properties 138,8 million shares and 48,6 million A$
So the theory is that there is parties in Hong Kong which would buy
a company with current market cap 16,43 A$ (based HK speculation)
for about 50 million.
If somebody would want the company, it could buy it much cheaper in Australia.