Stump - yes, a fair bit of research done, hence my opinion on this particular minnow. I am actually of the opinion that commercial rates will soften, however short-tail personal lines will firm up a little. The 50/50 split CIX seems to have (commercial/personal lines) provides them with a buffer against such rate movements.
Tiger2three - agree totally. Better to have good business than lots of so-so business. I think CIX have said all along that it is quality over quantity. Dawes was a good example - a good pool of policies backed by very strict underwriting guidelines.
There is a "macro" danger out there though. I am left cratching my head as to whether Wesfarmers may have to divest of the OAMPS book - to someone like QBE; but then again, who has the money for such a large book?
Quality, small company. Admitedly a bit frustrating to watch sometimes, and I really think Kirk has to concentrate on controlling his existing portfolio and the AUGIL integration risk (I, for one, don't think he has the necessary IT management in place to control the risks sufficiently on this one), rather than chase small aquisitions (there are a few smaller ones that don't make sense to me).
Regardless of the broader market, still convinced that 35 cents is a giveway.
Best regards Kit
CIX Price at posting:
35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held