MML 2.41% 85.0¢ medusa mining limited

Looks cheap based on the promised future but management have a...

  1. 6,756 Posts.
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    Looks cheap based on the promised future but management have a vey poor track record in fulfilling their promises.
    The split between actual cash held and gold awaiting settlement won't be known until the half yearly accounts are released around 28Feb.
    There is still at least a 50/50 chance in my opinion, that they will have to do a capital raising within the next two months to replenish their cash or repay their $US6mil in borrowings if they haven't been able to roll them over.
    They are employing over a thousand Filipinos and cannot responsibly let their cash balance fall too far especially as $2.4mil of that balance is restricted cash as per Note 23c in the Annual Report.
    They will need to be having a much better quarter currently to avoid a placement or rights issue and nothing in the quarterly points to that as I believe their current forecast is built on having a super Q4(Apr to Jun) which might actually happen but you need to have a lot of faith and in the meantime how big is the squeeze on their cash?
    Can't see them producing more than 20000 ozs this quarter due to the L8 Shaft guide replacement strategy.
    I also note that they haven't mentioned the estimated finishing date for the E15 Service Shaft that had previously been set as July this year.
    Also I don't understand how they can have a super Q4 if the E15 Service Shaft has not been completed.
 
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